PVC Market Holds Firm Amid Supply Pressure and Tepid Domestic Demand

Key Highlights:

• Weekly Gain: China PVC prices up by RMB 20/ton (July 1–4)
• Mundra Port K67 Price Range: ₹64,000–₹68,000/MT
• Export Demand Stable: Domestic buying weak, but overseas orders steady
• Operating Rates Low: Downstream sectors running below 50% capacity

PVC Market Price Trends: Mild Gains Amid Volatility

• In the first week of July, PVC prices in China showed a modest upward trend, with the lowest price recorded at RMB 4,597/ton on July 1 and the highest at RMB 4,693/ton on July 3 and 4. 
• The price moved from RMB 4,673/ton on June 29 to RMB 4,693/ton on July 4, reflecting a net weekly gain of 20 RMB/ton.

At Mundra Port, PVC K67 prices varied by brand:

• XINFA – ₹64,250/MT 
• HYGAIN – ₹66,250/MT 
• ASNYL & SINOPEC – ₹67,000/MT 
• DAGU – ₹68,000/MT 
• LG & HANWA (Compounded grades) – ₹69,000/MT
• Regular K67 variants are priced between ₹64,000–₹68,000/MT, while compounded grades command a premium, reaching up to ₹69,000/MT.

In June 2025, the domestic PVC market exhibited a mixed trend, posting a month-on-month gain of around 1.72%. The month began with continued weakness from May, but a rebound in the first week, supported by rising crude oil prices and stable PVC futures, lifted spot prices in line with futures.

However, in the second half of June, the market lost upward momentum, and prices entered a narrow range of fluctuations due to the absence of strong bullish drivers. By month-end, the sentiment had stabilized, with the overall trend remaining moderate.

PVC Market Demand and Supply: High Run Rates Add Pressure

• PVC supply saw moderate pressure, as manufacturers increased their operating rates, leading to higher production levels and growing inventories. Social inventory also climbed slightly due to these elevated operating levels.
• Calcium carbide, a major raw material for PVC production, experienced a 6.88% drop in domestic prices during June. This restricted further cost-driven price escalation for PVC.
• Downstream demand from PVC processors remained subdued. Operating rates at hard plastic product units and other downstream sectors stayed below 50%, with only average improvements through the month.
• Market activity focused on need-based procurement, with buyers resisting bulk purchases due to ongoing inventory pressure.
• Export demand, however, remained consistently strong and rigid, partially offsetting the weakness in domestic consumption.

Key Market News and Developments: Downstream Still Sluggish

• Inventory Rationalization: Despite a slight increase in inventory, enterprises are reportedly making efforts to rationalize stock levels, driven by brief increases in downstream procurement.
• Crude Oil Linkage: The correlation between crude oil price movements and PVC futures/spot markets was evident, with upstream energy trends temporarily driving prices higher in early June.
• Downstream Outlook: The slow resumption of operations in hard plastic manufacturing and other end-use segments continues to affect full market recovery.

Market Expectation: Range-Bound With Export Support

• The PVC market is expected to remain firm in July, with a balanced supply-demand scenario. However, increased supply due to high plant run rates could outweigh improvements in demand. 
• Exports will likely continue to offer some support. Unless downstream activity picks up significantly, prices are expected to stay range-bound with a slight upward bias.