Rosneft-EU Sanctions Impact on Indian Refining and Oil Trade

Key Highlights:

• VG30 Bitumen (Panipat): ₹46,852/MT; VG40 (Karwar): ₹36,640/MT 
• Base Oil SN150 (Delhi): ₹67.5/KG; Furnace Oil (Mundra): ₹49.5/KG
• EU sanctions Nayara Energy, Rosneft calls them unjustified 
• India’s neutral stance ensures short-term crude supply stability

Price Overview: Bitumen, Base Oil & Lubricants

Bitumen & Base Oil Market Prices – India

• Refinery Bitumen Prices (Ex-Depot):
  1. VG30 (Panipat): ₹46,852/MT
  2. VG40 (Karwar) – Roadgrip: ₹36,640/MT
  3. Bitumen Emulsion RS-1 (Mathura) – Roadgrip: ₹33,839/MT
   
• Base Oil & Fuel Oil Prices:
  1. Base Oil SN150 (Delhi): ₹67.5/KG
  2. Fuel Oil Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil (Mundra): ₹49.5/KG

Lubricant Oil Prices – LubriEdge (Ex-Bhiwadi / Delhi)

• Rubber Process Oil (Paraffinic 245): ₹70.5/LTR (Delhi)
• Hydraulic Oil 68: ₹87/LTR (Bhiwadi)
• Gear Oil 150: ₹115/LTR (Bhiwadi)
• Rust Preventive Oil (Water Displacing WDM): ₹122/LTR (Bhiwadi)
• Metal Working Fluid (Soluble Cutting Oil): ₹112/LTR (Bhiwadi)

Demand & Supply Outlook: Stable for Now

• India remains one of the largest importers of crude oil, with a consistent and rising demand driven by economic expansion, industrial activity, and fuel consumption. 
• Nayara Energy, located in Gujarat and partly owned by Russia's Rosneft, plays a critical role in fulfilling this domestic demand through its large-scale refining capabilities.
• Currently, there is no immediate disruption in supply, but the EU’s move to impose sanctions may cast uncertainty over future Russian crude inflows to Indian refiners—especially those with Russian affiliations. 
• However, given India's stance of neutrality and rejection of unilateral sanctions, short-term supply is expected to remain stable.

Key News Highlight: Global Sanctions in Spotlight

• Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, has strongly condemned the EU’s recent sanctions on Nayara Energy, calling them “illegal and unjustified.” These sanctions are part of the EU’s 18th package aimed at curbing Russia’s oil revenue in response to the Ukraine invasion.
• Rosneft holds a 49.13% stake in Nayara but clarified it does not control the company, which operates independently under Indian jurisdiction. The company warned that these actions could harm India's energy security and economic stability.India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has also pushed back, stating that India does not recognize unilateral sanctions and only abides by those imposed under the UN framework. The MEA criticized the EU for interfering in the sovereign affairs of a third country.

Market Expectation: Watching the Long Game

• In the short term, the sanctions are not expected to disrupt crude flows or refined product availability in India. However, the geopolitical tension may increase scrutiny on Indian refiners working with Russian entities, possibly affecting future investment sentiment or trade contracts.
• There may be a temporary increase in speculative activity in the oil markets, especially around the availability of Russian crude to India. If compliance pressure builds, Indian refiners may seek to diversify their sources further, potentially leading to marginal price variations in the crude import basket.
• In the medium to long term, India's firm diplomatic position and the independent operations of Nayara may insulate the market from direct fallout. However, continued geopolitical uncertainty could introduce volatility in oil prices and trade policy decisions.