Russia-India Energy Ties Reshape Crude Dynamics Amid Sanctions and OPEC+ Strains

Key Highlights

1. WTI and Brent crude saw minor declines; gas rose 0.51%.
2. India's Russian crude imports reached 2 mb/d in April 2025.
3. OPEC+ plans 411,000 b/d output hike from May 2025.
4. India-Russia signed MoU for thorium SMR and clean energy ventures.

Crude and Petroleum Product Price Trends

• Crude oil prices witnessed a slight decline across major benchmarks. WTI Crude fell by 0.39% to $60.70, while Brent Crude slipped 0.36% to $63.92. Murban Crude also edged down 0.30% to $63.35. In contrast, natural gas prices saw a modest rise, increasing by 0.51% to $3.540, reflecting marginal gains in the energy market amid broader oil softness.
• Refinery Bitumen (VG30) is currently priced at ₹48,052 per metric ton in Panipat, Roadgrip Bitumen (VG40) is available at ₹36,500 per metric ton in Karwar. In Mathura, Roadgrip Bitumen Emulsion (RS1) is being offered at ₹33,700 per metric ton. 
• Base Oil (SN150) is trading at ₹67 per kilogram in Delhi, Meanwhile, Fuel Oil (Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil) is priced at ₹47.5 per kilogram in Mundra. 
• Among lubricants, LubriEdge Hydraulic Oil (Grade 68) is selling for ₹87 per litre, and LubriEdge Gear Oil (Grade 150) is priced at ₹115 per litre, both in Bhiwadi.

India Deepens Russian Oil Imports Amid Global Shifts

• As per orfonline.org, The global crude oil market continues to witness evolving demand-supply patterns, especially due to geopolitical realignments. Russia's shift away from its reliance on China has amplified the importance of India as a strategic energy partner. India’s crude oil imports from Russia hit a two-year high in April 2025, nearing 2 million barrels per day (mb/d). This marks over 30% of India’s total crude basket, compared to near-zero levels before 2022, reflecting a tenfold increase post-sanctions.
• India’s refiners have strategically used Russian crude to boost diesel and jet fuel exports to Europe, effectively turning sanctions into a trading opportunity. Unlike China, which demands deep discounts and equity participation in Russian ventures, India's commercial, non-political procurement model offers Moscow a stable outlet for exports without strategic compromise.
• On the supply side, Russia exceeded its OPEC+ production quota by 480,000 b/d in early 2024, underlining its fiscal urgency. Yet its compliance with compensatory cuts remains inconsistent, contrasting with stricter adherence from Iraq and Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, OPEC+ plans to raise production by 411,000 b/d starting May 2025, adding complexity to price stabilization efforts.

India-Russia Energy Ties Expand Beyond Fossil Fuels

• Russia’s Energy Strategy 2035 continues to favour hydrocarbons, with 60% of its investments directed toward Arctic LNG projects targeting 140 MTPA capacity. However, China’s increasing price pressures and LNG diversification have weakened Moscow’s energy leverage.
• In contrast, India and Russia are expanding bilateral energy cooperation beyond crude, with six new joint ventures signed across shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, and clean energy. A notable development includes Maharashtra’s MoU with ROSATOM to build India’s first thorium-based small modular reactor (SMR) - a clean, flexible nuclear option that marks a shift from fossil fuels.
• The energy alignment also includes efforts to bypass Western marine insurance mechanisms, showcasing adaptability in maintaining uninterrupted trade flows.

Expert Opinion: Long-Term Market Outlook Driven by OPEC+

The growing India-Russia energy alliance is expected to stabilize Russian crude exports, offsetting pressure from China’s bargaining and OPEC+ production decisions. The market anticipates a sustained flow of discounted Russian crude to India, with upstream diversification via SMRs and clean tech cooperation potentially reshaping long-term demand dynamics in the region.