Secondary Channel Prices Firm on Post-Monsoon Demand; Primary Mills Steady

Key Highlights

• Current Base Prices: Primary ₹50,200–₹54,200/ton; Secondary ₹45,300–₹48,200/ton.
• Demand Pulse: Secondary market bullish; Telangana and Odisha lead fabrication revival.
• Supply Signals: Raipur/Raigarh mills at ~80% capacity, but select SKUs face shortages.
• Outlook: Secondary prices may rise ₹200–₹400/ton; primary mills could ease rates marginally by mid-September.

Channel Price Snapshot

Primary Mills (100×50 Channel)

• Durgapur: ₹50,200
• Chennai: ₹54,200
• Vizag: ₹52,800
• Mumbai: ₹53,800
• Ghaziabad: ₹51,700

Secondary Markets

• Raipur: ₹45,300
• Hyderabad: ₹48,200
• Raigarh: ₹46,100
• Chennai: ₹47,400
• Mandi Gobindgarh: ₹47,200
• Durgapur: ₹46,000

Market Dynamics

Primary Market

• Procurement steady, mostly from confirmed orders; speculative buying remains subdued.
• Mumbai and Chennai stockists offloading older inventory, but note a rise in bulk enquiries from infrastructure contractors.
• Ghaziabad & NCR see slow demand as project budgets are still being finalized.
• ISMB 250–300 and WPB 200 move steadily, supported by metro and highway projects.

Secondary Market

• Post-monsoon revival strong, especially in Telangana, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh.
• Raipur and Raigarh mills run at ~80% capacity; localized shortages persist for ISMC 75×75 and angles.
• Telangana shows robust fabrication activity with steady small and mid-lot purchases.

Market Developments

• Logistics: Freight rates remain elevated, though easing as monsoon pressures decline.
• Billing Cycle: Month-end GST pressures prompt small traders to procure 5–15 MT urgently.
• Discounting: Cash discounts stable at 0.5%–0.75%; mills reluctant to widen rebates amid rising input costs.
• Exports: Overseas demand negligible; domestic demand drives the market.

Buyer Strategy: Till Last Week

Secondary Market

• Fast-Moving SKUs: ISMC 75/100, Angles 65×65 & 75×75, Flats 6–10 mm.
• Tight Locations: Raigarh, Mandi Gobindgarh, and Durgapur face stock shortages for full-truck dispatches.
• Advice: Secure project-critical material immediately as prices may firm by ₹200–₹400/MT within a week if construction activity continues to rise.

Primary Market

• Stable SKUs: ISMB 250/300 and WPB 200.
• Booking Strategy: Wait for mill circulars expected by 18th September; a minor correction of ₹200–₹300/MT is possible if secondary prices stabilize.

Sentiment & Outlook

• Secondary Segment: Positive bias, led by strong activity in central and eastern regions; liquidity supported by steady small-to-mid lot buying.
• Primary Segment: Stable but cautious; mills watching downstream demand before adjusting prices.
• Stockists & Contractors: Confidence improving as project timelines tighten, prompting 10–50 MT lot bookings.

Near-Term Outlook

• Secondary Prices: Likely firm to moderately bullish over the next 5–7 days.
• Primary Prices: Expected to remain steady; a minor softening (₹200–₹300/MT) possible by mid-September if demand eases.
• Buyer Strategy: Lock confirmed requirements up to 20th September.
• Watch Zone: Eastern belt (Durgapur, Raipur, Raigarh) — stock shortages may trigger arbitrage opportunities into North India.