TMT Bar Prices Dip Further as Demand Weakens and Trade Uncertainty Grows

 Key Takeaways

• Price Drop Across Regions: TMT bar prices fell again in Mumbai, Delhi, and Vizag, driven by weak buying interest and steady supply.
• Demand Sluggishness: Contractors and buyers remain cautious, delaying new orders and keeping procurement minimal due to market uncertainty.
• Supply Remains Stable: Distributors are well-stocked, and transportation is smooth, helping maintain availability despite lower transaction volumes.
• JSW Steel Output Rises: May 2025 crude steel output rose 8% YoY, indicating strong operations even as market sentiment weakens.
• Tariff Tensions Escalate: India faces 50% U.S. steel tariffs from June 9; trade negotiations remain inconclusive ahead of July deadline.

Primary TMT Prices

• Prices are as follows:
  1. Ex-Mumbai: Rs. 54,500 - 55,000/mt 
  2. Ex-Delhi NCR: Rs.55,000 - 55,500/mt
  3. Ex-Vizag: Rs. 52,000 - 52,500/mt 
• Note: Distributors across North, West and South have decreased the prices. Above pricing is based on the same.

Primary TMT Demand & Supply

• Consistent with the general market conditions, pricing continued to decline, pointing to persistent weakness in the sector.
• On the supply side, sellers are responding to subdued demand with more competitive pricing tactics. 
• Meanwhile, distributors are maintaining adequate inventory levels, which is helping ensure steady product availability and reducing the risk of disruptions in the supply chain.

Primary TMT News

• JSW Steel reported a consolidated crude steel production of 22.73 lakh mt in May 2025, marking an 8% year-on-year increase. The year-to-date growth now stands at 13%, indicating a strong operational performance
• However, tensions over US tariffs are clouding India’s steel trade outlook. The US has declined to exempt India from its newly raised 50% tariff on steel and aluminium imports, threatening progress on a proposed mini-trade deal. 
• Talks aim to conclude a preliminary Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by July 8, before reciprocal tariffs kick in on July 9. India had hoped for full tariff removal and even filed a case at the WTO on May 13, but the US rejected the move and confirmed the duty hike for all nations starting June 9.

Expert Opinion

• With demand tapering off noticeably, producers have started applying more significant price reductions selectively. Should this sluggish demand persist, additional price declines may follow in the coming week. The downturn is evident across both core and peripheral markets, signalling a widespread pullback in purchasing and increased caution among buyers.
• On the supply front, conditions remain stable. Distributors have sufficient stock to meet current demand, and there are no immediate concerns around supply shortages or transportation issues. Meanwhile, manufacturers are receiving fewer new orders, suggesting that production levels are closely aligned with the softer demand, reducing the likelihood of overstock or disruptions.