Toluene Market in Correction Mode: Declining Prices Reflect Weak Sentiment

In the Asian market, toluene prices are being corrected due to poor market sentiment. The Asian benchmark FOB Korea prices declined by $20/MT today. In the domestic market, toluene prices decreased by ₹1/kg, bringing the rates to ₹82.00++ Ex-Kandla and ₹82.50++ Ex-Mumbai on 60-day payment terms.

Price

  • In the Asian market, toluene prices are undergoing a correction due to poor market sentiment. The Asian benchmark FOB Korea prices declined by $20/MT today.
  • In the domestic market, toluene prices decreased by ₹1/kg, bringing the rates to ₹82.00++ Ex-Kandla and ₹82.50++ Ex-Mumbai on 60-day payment terms.
  • Trader offers were lower, standing at ₹79.50++ Ex-Mumbai and ₹79.00++ Ex-Kandla on advance payment terms for immediate dispatches. Bulk deal buying interest was observed in the range of ₹78++ Ex-Mumbai on 90 days DA/LC terms.
  • The decline in toluene prices is attributed to weak market sentiment and the bearish trends in crude oil and naphtha prices.

Demand and Supply

  • In July, toluene prices exhibited mixed trends due to sluggish downstream demand, despite strong demand from the bulk drug sector.
  • The demand from the packaging industry is gradually diminishing as most ink and packaging manufacturers are shifting to n-propyl acetate in place of toluene, following a ban on its use in food packaging production.
  • Traders and end-users are hesitant to build inventories due to price fluctuations and high liquidation pressure.
  • The incoming vessel supplies remain uninterrupted and robust, potentially leading to further inventory buildup.
  • India’s monthly demand for toluene is approximately 57,000 MT. Domestic producers like RIL and BPCL contribute around 9,600 MT per month, while an average of 45,000 MT is imported monthly.
  • In cracking dynamics, the naphtha-to-toluene price spread stands at $195, which is a healthy margin compared to the required $150 spread.
  • Meanwhile, the toluene-to-benzene price spread is around $140, significantly above the $95 breakeven spread, projecting positive returns for TDP crackers.
  • Therefore, any further correction of up to $50 in toluene prices is sustainable for refineries.

News

  • In the international market, upstream crude oil benchmark WTI prices decreased by 0.55% to $77.72 per barrel.
  • Naphtha prices were at $665/MT.
  • FOB Korea benzene prices dropped by $10 to $1,000/MT, and FOB toluene prices fell by $20/MT to $860/MT.

Expert's Opinion

  • It is expected that toluene prices are expected to remain bearish this week due to ongoing weak market sentiment. However, strong bulk drug demand from primary consumers is likely to provide some support to toluene prices.
  • As replacement costs are currently lower, buyers are advised to adopt just-in-time procurement strategies instead of building up inventories.
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