Toluene Market Update – Prices Firm Amid Port Shortages; Global Sentiment Remains Cautious

Key Highlights

• India prices up due to tightened port availability between 21–27 Nov.
• China steady with 0.75% weekly price rise and consistent need-based buying.
• Crude weak as OPEC+ boosts output and global demand softens.
• Outlook stable-soft, with India’s short-term tightness offering temporary support.

Toluene Prices Rise in India on Port Tightness; China Steady

Toluene prices in India witnessed an upward movement driven by tightening availability at ports:

• 21–24 Nov
  • Ex-Kandla: ₹80/kg
  • Ex-Mumbai: ₹86/kg
• 25–27 Nov
  • Ex-Kandla: ₹83/kg
  • Ex-Mumbai (reported earlier as Kandla in notes): ₹89/kg

The upward trend is directly linked to short-term shortages at Indian ports, which tightened spot availability.

China Pricing Trend:
Benchmark toluene prices in China rose from 5,330 RMB/ton (17 Nov) to 5,370 RMB/ton (24 Nov) — a 0.75% weekly increase. Supply remained steady, while demand was driven mainly by need-based restocking.

Balanced Demand-Supply; India Sees Short-Term Availability Tightness

Supply:

• Port-side tightness in India reduced availability, supporting price gains.
• In China, Sinopec’s plants operated normally, with stable internal consumption and production.
• China Regional pricing:
  • East China: 5,400 RMB/ton
  • North China: 5,250–5,350 RMB/ton
  • South China: 5,400–5,500 RMB/ton
  • Central China: 5,450 RMB/ton

Demand:

• Indian demand remains steady with buyers securing cargo primarily for immediate requirements.
• In China, the oil-blending and chemical sectors maintained consistent need-based procurement.
• Downstream paraxylene (PX) demand remained stable as Sinopec maintained PX pricing at 6,800 RMB/ton across all regions.

Overall, both domestic and international markets show balanced supply-demand, with no major disruptions aside from local port shortages.

Market News: Crude Weakens on OPEC+ Moves and Soft Global Demand Sentiment

• International crude oil prices weakened slightly due to:
  • OPEC+ announcing fresh production increases
  • Concerns over long-term oversupply
  • Easing geopolitical tensions
  • Weakening U.S. demand and tariff-led global economic pressure
• Crude price snapshot (21 Nov):
  • WTI (Jan contract): $58.06/bbl
  • Brent (Feb contract): $61.94/bbl
• Asian PX prices (21 Nov):
  • FOB Korea: $791–793/ton
  • CFR China: $816–818/ton
  • Down by $15/ton from the previous week.

Market Expectation: Stable-to-Soft Outlook

• With crude oil prices softening and global sentiment turning cautious, toluene may face mild downward pressure.
• However, India’s short-term port shortages will continue providing near-term price support.
• Supply and demand fundamentals remain largely unchanged across Asia, with stable refinery operations and steady downstream consumption.
• In the short term, the market is expected to remain stable to slightly weaker, unless crude oil recovers or domestic supply conditions tighten further.

Overall Outlook: A range-bound to mildly soft trend is anticipated, driven by global crude cues but cushioned by localized tightness in India.