Trump Tariffs Shake Oil Trade: India Boosts US, Russian Imports

Key Takeaways

• India Ramps Up U.S. Oil Imports: March imports increased 67% to 244,000 bpd, reflecting changing trade policies and diversification efforts.
• Russian Crude Intake Increases: Imports reached 1.9 million bpd, hitting an eight-month high despite Western sanctions.
• Trump’s Tariffs Loom Over Oil Trade: New policies may disrupt crude flows and impact global pricing trends.
• Crude Prices Remain Stable: Brent Crude hovers below $75 per barrel, while WTI stays above $71 per barrel. 
• New Oil Reserves in Uttar Pradesh: If the reserves prove significant, ONGC’s exploration in Ballia could reduce India’s import dependency.

Petroleum Price: Crude Oil Increases

• The Indian Rupee weakened slightly against the US Dollar, trading at ₹85.64, down by ₹0.03. The currency opened at ₹85.61 today, the same as its previous closing rate of ₹85.61.
• Meanwhile, crude oil prices edged higher. Brent Crude is currently at $74.51 per barrel, reflecting a 0.03% increase. It opened at $74.52 today, slightly above its previous closing of $74.49. 
• Similarly, WTI Crude rose by 0.07%, trading at $71.25 per barrel. It opened at $71.15, up from its previous closing price of $71.20.

Petroleum Demand & Supply Dynamics: Imports from US & Russia Up

• India's crude oil imports from the US surged by 67% in March 2025, reaching 244,000 barrels per day from 146,000 in February, reflecting increased reliance on American crude amid shifting trade policies. 
• At the same time, India also expanded its Russian crude intake to 1.9 million barrels per day, a rise of 480,000 barrels, as refiners sought diversified supply sources.
• This shift in import patterns coincides with US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policies, which aim to promote American exports. 
• While Trump has been vocal about increasing tariffs on foreign goods, India has preemptively lowered import duties on US products to mitigate the impact.
• Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained relatively steady, with Brent crude below $75 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) above $71. 
• The market remains watchful as global demand, geopolitical tensions, and tariff-induced disruptions continue to influence pricing trends.

Petroleum News: US Tariffs Loom, ONGC Discovers New Oil Reserves

• India’s crude oil imports from the U.S. surged 67% in March, driven by growing energy demand and geopolitical shifts. At the same time, imports from Russia rose to 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), hitting an eight-month high despite ongoing Western sanctions.
• The increase in U.S. imports follows discussions during Donald Trump’s meeting with PM Narendra Modi earlier this year, where energy trade was a key focus. However, Trump’s recent threat of 80% tariffs on Russian oil has prompted Indian refiners to explore alternatives, including supplies from the Middle East, North Sea, and the Mediterranean.
• While Indian refiners remain unfazed by "secondary tariffs" for now, the potential policy shift under a Trump administration could disrupt current trade flows. Meanwhile, India continues to walk a pragmatic energy policy line, balancing cost-effective Russian crude with diversification efforts.
• In a major domestic development, crude oil reserves were discovered in Ballia, Uttar Pradesh, with ONGC beginning exploration. If substantial, these reserves could reduce India’s reliance on imported oil, which currently drains foreign exchange reserves.

Expert Opinion: Market Volatility Expected Amid Trump’s Tariffs

• The upcoming announcement of Trump’s new tariffs on April 2 is expected to create significant market volatility, particularly in oil, automobiles, and metals. The immediate tariff enforcement, followed by higher tariffs on cars from April 3, raises concerns about global trade imbalances.
• While Trump’s protectionist approach aims to support American manufacturers and workers, it could also strain trade relations with major economies, including India, Canada, Mexico, and China. The White House has yet to confirm tariff percentages, but past discussions suggest potential hikes of up to 60% on Chinese goods, which may trigger retaliatory measures.
• Financial markets are already reflecting the uncertainty, with Wall Street showing sharp swings. While the Nasdaq rebounded 300 points and tech stocks showed resilience, weak economic data—including manufacturing contraction and lower job openings—could dampen investor sentiment. Oil prices, though stable, may face supply-side constraints if tariffs disrupt global crude flows.
• As the world waits for Trump’s final decision, market participants are closely monitoring trade negotiations between the US and India, hoping for a deal that could ease tariff tensions and boost bilateral trade toward the $500 billion target.