Zinc Prices Stable Amid Bearish Sentiment; Surplus Forecast Caps Upside Potential
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Zinc prices remain stable across LME, SHFE, and MCX, though market sentiment stays bearish due to oversupply concerns. ILZSG forecasts a global surplus of 93,000 t in 2025. Treatment charges have hit a five-year low, reflecting weak market fundamentals. MCX zinc is trading near resistance, but a strong demand revival is needed to break the upside cap.
Key Highlights:
- LME zinc trades at US $2,854/mt (+0.5%), SHFE at ~¥24,065/mt, and MCX zinc at ₹273.95/kg (+0.18%)
- ILZSG projects a 2025 global surplus of ~93,000 t due to higher mine and refined production
- Benchmark treatment charge drops to US $80/t from US $165/t in 2024
- Sentiment remains bearish; MCX resistance at ₹276 may cap short-term gains without a strong breako
Zinc Price Overview Across Major Exchanges
- LME (3-month cash): Latest price is approximately US $2,854/mt, up +0.5% from the previous close (US $2,855)
- SHFE: Most-traded SHFE zinc price is around ¥24,065/mt
- MCX (India): Zinc futures trading at ~₹273.95/kg, up +0.18%
Global Supply & Demand Outlook for 2025
LME Stocks and Trading Activity:
- As of 24 July 2025, LME zinc inventories (cash settlement) stood at 116,900 t
- Trading volume has fluctuated despite relatively stable closing prices
ILZSG Outlook – Global Supply/Demand:
- For 2025, ILZSG forecasts a global zinc surplus of ~93,000 t
- Mine production is expected to grow ~4.3% to ~12.43 Mt
- Refined zinc output to increase ~1.8% to ~13.73 Mt
- Global demand is projected to rise ~1.0%, driven mainly by galvanized steel demand
Treatment Charges Signal Weak Concentrate Market
- The annual benchmark treatment charge for 2025 is set at US $80/t, down from US $165/t in 2024
- This decline indicates a well-supplied concentrate market and weaker fundamentals
Market Sentiment & Fund Positioning
- Investor sentiment has turned bearish due to rising supply and subdued demand
- Funds are increasingly taking short positions amid weak pricing outlook
News Highlights: Investors Bearish on Zinc
- Investment funds remain cautious amid growing oversupply and weak consumption trends.
- Falling treatment charges ($80/t benchmark) reflect a concentrate glut and poor smelter margins
Expert Opinion: Resistance Limits Upside Potential
- Support: ₹272.5/kg
- Resistance: ₹276.0/kg
- Breakout Level: Above ₹276.5/kg
Given the current MCX zinc price at ₹273.95/kg, any significant upside will require a breakout above ₹276.5. However, with global fundamentals remaining bearish, the upside appears limited in the near term.
Zinc Ingots
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