Base Oil (N500) in Delhi

Global bitumen and crude oil markets experienced mixed trends last week. Crude prices dipped due to rising inventories and demand concerns. Bitumen prices rose in Singapore but fell in India. Iran faces production issues, while geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply changes contribute to market volatility heading into June.

Oil and gas prices across India remain steady, but exports of petroleum products dropped sharply by 35% YoY in April 2025 due to reduced HSD and ATF shipments and planned refinery maintenance. While short-term volumes may remain subdued, upcoming capacity expansions and stable demand are expected to support future recovery.

India’s crude demand is rising, while production and exports dip. Bitumen and base oil prices hold steady. The government’s push for over 100 domestically built crude tankers will boost energy security and shipbuilding. Geopolitical risks and global tensions drive volatility, prompting interest in Iranian crude to diversify supply sources.

India’s base oil market remains soft, with region-wise price disparities and a weak outlook. Declines in crude production, refinery throughput, and petroleum exports are pressuring margins. While bulk and barrel-packaged oil prices remain stable, market sentiment is bearish due to muted demand, subdued exports, and volatile global oil trends.

Brent Crude averaged $67.79/bbl in April 2025, down from $72.60/bbl in March. India’s crude imports fell 1% YoY, with Russia maintaining its lead and the U.S. surpassing the UAE. Domestic production declined, while petroleum product output dropped 4.2%. LNG imports surged 21.3%, highlighting a growing shift to cleaner fuels.

Crude oil prices rose sharply amid U.S.–China trade relief, yet Asian base oil markets remain mixed. Group II and III face oversupply, especially with South Korean restarts, keeping prices under pressure. Bright Stock stays firm due to structural shortages. Market sentiment remains cautious amid persistent weak downstream demand and limited industrial recovery.

WTI crude oil hovers above $63/bbl, weighed by OPEC+ supply increases and U.S. trade tensions. Goldman Sachs highlights Trump’s historical preference for lower oil prices, adding uncertainty. While easing U.S.–China tariffs provided brief support, rising U.S. inventories and fragile geopolitical balances limit further upside. Market remains cautious and range-bound.

India has significantly ramped up U.S. crude oil imports, leveraging favorable WTI pricing and using energy trade as a strategic tool amid ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. State refiners are leading the charge, while analysts expect continued import growth, potentially impacting regional freight, WTI pricing, and global energy trade dynamics.

Petroleum product prices in India show wide regional and packaging variations, with VG40, base oils, and lubricants trading at distinct levels. OPEC+ output hike and subdued demand are shaping global supply dynamics. Despite regional geopolitical tensions, oil prices remain stable due to unaffected supply chains and sufficient global inventories.