Daily Market Report

Fuel oil prices remain stable across regions, while aviation fuel demand in India continues to climb, registering a 7% YoY growth. Numaligarh Refinery’s upcoming ATF plant in Odisha is expected to strengthen supply and align with long-term energy goals. Meanwhile, biofuel developments in Assam highlight India’s push toward circular economy solutions, including activated carbon for cosmetics and pharma sectors.

Crude oil prices are relatively stable, with WTI at $62.69 and Brent at $64.76. India’s crude imports are set to rise in H2 2025 as refineries restart and expand. Russia remains a top supplier, while Brent-Dubai EFS makes Middle Eastern crude more attractive. Import diversification is expected to continue.

India’s average crude import price dropped to $72/barrel in March 2025, down from $84 a year earlier, driven by global price softening and diversified sourcing. While Russian crude remains a key supply, narrowing discounts and longer delivery times for U.S. imports are reshaping India’s strategy toward Middle East and West African suppliers.

Crude prices dipped slightly while natural gas edged up. India's crude imports from Russia hit a two-year high, signaling deepening ties. Ongoing OPEC+ adjustments and geopolitical shifts influence supply. Joint India-Russia clean energy projects, including a thorium SMR, hint at future diversification beyond hydrocarbons.

Global bitumen and crude oil markets experienced mixed trends last week. Crude prices dipped due to rising inventories and demand concerns. Bitumen prices rose in Singapore but fell in India. Iran faces production issues, while geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply changes contribute to market volatility heading into June.

Oil and gas prices across India remain steady, but exports of petroleum products dropped sharply by 35% YoY in April 2025 due to reduced HSD and ATF shipments and planned refinery maintenance. While short-term volumes may remain subdued, upcoming capacity expansions and stable demand are expected to support future recovery.

India’s crude demand is rising, while production and exports dip. Bitumen and base oil prices hold steady. The government’s push for over 100 domestically built crude tankers will boost energy security and shipbuilding. Geopolitical risks and global tensions drive volatility, prompting interest in Iranian crude to diversify supply sources.

India’s base oil market remains soft, with region-wise price disparities and a weak outlook. Declines in crude production, refinery throughput, and petroleum exports are pressuring margins. While bulk and barrel-packaged oil prices remain stable, market sentiment is bearish due to muted demand, subdued exports, and volatile global oil trends.

Brent Crude averaged $67.79/bbl in April 2025, down from $72.60/bbl in March. India’s crude imports fell 1% YoY, with Russia maintaining its lead and the U.S. surpassing the UAE. Domestic production declined, while petroleum product output dropped 4.2%. LNG imports surged 21.3%, highlighting a growing shift to cleaner fuels.

Crude oil prices rose sharply amid U.S.–China trade relief, yet Asian base oil markets remain mixed. Group II and III face oversupply, especially with South Korean restarts, keeping prices under pressure. Bright Stock stays firm due to structural shortages. Market sentiment remains cautious amid persistent weak downstream demand and limited industrial recovery.

WTI crude oil hovers above $63/bbl, weighed by OPEC+ supply increases and U.S. trade tensions. Goldman Sachs highlights Trump’s historical preference for lower oil prices, adding uncertainty. While easing U.S.–China tariffs provided brief support, rising U.S. inventories and fragile geopolitical balances limit further upside. Market remains cautious and range-bound.

India has significantly ramped up U.S. crude oil imports, leveraging favorable WTI pricing and using energy trade as a strategic tool amid ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. State refiners are leading the charge, while analysts expect continued import growth, potentially impacting regional freight, WTI pricing, and global energy trade dynamics.