Daily Market Report

Oil prices fell nearly 5% to $65.72/bbl following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, relieving pressure on Indian refiners but straining upstream firms like ONGC and Oil India. Domestic petroleum prices remained steady. Refining margins improved due to lower input costs, but global demand hesitancy and high inventories continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Petroleum product prices in India remain steady amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While supply is currently uninterrupted, the threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade is prompting India to prepare contingency plans, including export curbs. Strategic reserves and sourcing diversification may shield domestic markets from immediate disruption, but global pricing remains volatile.

Petroleum product prices in India remain steady, but rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have pushed crude oil prices to a two-month high. While India’s strategic reserves and advance procurement offer short-term protection, elevated freight costs and risks to the Strait of Hormuz may impact pricing and supply chains.

India’s bitumen and base oil prices showed mixed trends, with bulk VG40 and emulsion variants varying by region. Meanwhile, state refiners plan $600M in domestic MR tanker orders, 15–20% costlier than imports, reflecting a push for energy logistics self-reliance. Strategic support and efficient execution remain key challenges.

Bitumen prices showed mixed trends globally. While international prices remained stable or slightly firm, India’s bulk bitumen saw mild price pressure due to early monsoons. Drum bitumen demand remained steady. Geopolitical tensions, Iran’s logistical issues, and OPEC+ policy direction are key variables for short-term price movement.

Bitumen prices in India range from ₹32,290/MT to ₹48,382/MT, while base oil and lubricant rates show regional variation. Crude oil prices fell sharply in May 2025, but refining margins increased, boosting profitability for Indian refiners. Demand remains strong across petroleum and gas segments, with CGD leading recovery.Market analysts expect continued growth in FY26–27, with key players like RIL, GAIL, and GOLI well-positioned to benefit.

Brent crude increased slightly to $65.03/bbl, while base oil prices in Asia remained mostly stable. Group I SN500 saw mild softness, and Group II heavy cuts faced demand pressure in India and China. The monsoon has led to deferred buying, although Group III grades remain tight amid ongoing maintenance. With demand muted in Asia but rising in Europe, price trends remain uncertain. Tariff rulings and refinery turnarounds continue to affect regional flows and sentiment.

Fuel oil prices remain stable across regions, while aviation fuel demand in India continues to climb, registering a 7% YoY growth. Numaligarh Refinery’s upcoming ATF plant in Odisha is expected to strengthen supply and align with long-term energy goals. Meanwhile, biofuel developments in Assam highlight India’s push toward circular economy solutions, including activated carbon for cosmetics and pharma sectors.

Crude oil prices are relatively stable, with WTI at $62.69 and Brent at $64.76. India’s crude imports are set to rise in H2 2025 as refineries restart and expand. Russia remains a top supplier, while Brent-Dubai EFS makes Middle Eastern crude more attractive. Import diversification is expected to continue.

India’s average crude import price dropped to $72/barrel in March 2025, down from $84 a year earlier, driven by global price softening and diversified sourcing. While Russian crude remains a key supply, narrowing discounts and longer delivery times for U.S. imports are reshaping India’s strategy toward Middle East and West African suppliers.

Crude prices dipped slightly while natural gas edged up. India's crude imports from Russia hit a two-year high, signaling deepening ties. Ongoing OPEC+ adjustments and geopolitical shifts influence supply. Joint India-Russia clean energy projects, including a thorium SMR, hint at future diversification beyond hydrocarbons.

Global bitumen and crude oil markets experienced mixed trends last week. Crude prices dipped due to rising inventories and demand concerns. Bitumen prices rose in Singapore but fell in India. Iran faces production issues, while geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply changes contribute to market volatility heading into June.