Fuel Oil Price (180cST Furnace Oil) in Mumbai

The EU plans to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45–50 per barrel, aiming to curb Moscow’s revenue. This could trigger crude price volatility and boost demand for discounted Russian oil from countries like India. Previously, Russia bypassed the cap’s impact by inflating freight and insurance costs, maintaining near-market earnings despite restrictions.

Base oil prices across Asia remained stable to firm in mid-July, supported by constrained supply and rising crude benchmarks. Group I and III grades saw the most pressure. Demand stayed weak due to monsoon impact and soft industrial activity, while refinery turnarounds kept supply tight. Outlook remains firm for key grades.

Brent crude has softened to $82.34/barrel on recession fears, but disciplined OPEC+ output keeps the downside in check. In India, bitumen prices continue to rise, especially at Kandla, amid tight import supply and strong restocking demand. Market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing monsoon disruption and limited PSU allocations.

Crude oil prices dipped marginally as global sentiment remains cautious. However, demand from petrochemicals is poised to become the largest growth segment for oil through 2030, driven by rising use of plastics and synthetic materials. China and the US lead in feedstock capacity, shaping trade flows and refining economics.

Bitumen prices across global markets show mixed trends as early monsoon weakens Indian demand while geopolitical instability, especially the Israel-Iran conflict, tightens supply. Crude volatility and force majeure conditions in Iran are disrupting export flows, with Europe and China facing upward pressure. Market participants must brace for heightened price and supply risks.

Oil prices fell nearly 5% to $65.72/bbl following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, relieving pressure on Indian refiners but straining upstream firms like ONGC and Oil India. Domestic petroleum prices remained steady. Refining margins improved due to lower input costs, but global demand hesitancy and high inventories continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Petroleum product prices in India remain steady amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While supply is currently uninterrupted, the threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade is prompting India to prepare contingency plans, including export curbs. Strategic reserves and sourcing diversification may shield domestic markets from immediate disruption, but global pricing remains volatile.

Petroleum product prices in India remain steady, but rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have pushed crude oil prices to a two-month high. While India’s strategic reserves and advance procurement offer short-term protection, elevated freight costs and risks to the Strait of Hormuz may impact pricing and supply chains.

India’s bitumen and base oil prices showed mixed trends, with bulk VG40 and emulsion variants varying by region. Meanwhile, state refiners plan $600M in domestic MR tanker orders, 15–20% costlier than imports, reflecting a push for energy logistics self-reliance. Strategic support and efficient execution remain key challenges.