Fuel Oil (Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil) in Mumbai

WTI crude oil hovers above $63/bbl, weighed by OPEC+ supply increases and U.S. trade tensions. Goldman Sachs highlights Trump’s historical preference for lower oil prices, adding uncertainty. While easing U.S.–China tariffs provided brief support, rising U.S. inventories and fragile geopolitical balances limit further upside. Market remains cautious and range-bound.

India has significantly ramped up U.S. crude oil imports, leveraging favorable WTI pricing and using energy trade as a strategic tool amid ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. State refiners are leading the charge, while analysts expect continued import growth, potentially impacting regional freight, WTI pricing, and global energy trade dynamics.

Crude oil prices dipped as Brent fell to $63.61 and WTI to $59.72, amid weaker Asian refinery demand and rising trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee marginally appreciated. India’s crude sourcing shifts toward the US, with record June purchases planned, positioning oil imports as leverage ahead of May’s India - US trade talks.

Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil prices in India are ₹47.5–₹49/kg. East China’s 180cST market declined 0.45% to $751/ton. Global inventories show mixed trends: fuel oil stocks rose, while middle distillates fell. Despite slight crude gains, cautious buying dominates, keeping fuel oil market sentiment consolidative amid OPEC+ policy uncertainties.

Crude oil prices saw modest gains, with WTI at $64.19/bbl and Brent at $67.89/bbl. The Indian Rupee weakened to ₹85.34/USD. Russia now supplies 36% of India’s crude, outpacing OPEC. Domestic bitumen, base oil, and fuel oil prices remain stable. Market sentiment is bullish amid tightened supply and rising geopolitical risks.

Base oil prices in Asia remained soft in April amid sluggish demand and geopolitical uncertainty. Select grades like Bright Stock and Group III remain tight due to supply constraints. However, Group II prices faced downward pressure from rising inventories. Market outlook stays cautious as crude benchmarks decline and trade risks persist.

India’s average crude oil import price has fallen below $70 per barrel for the first time since August 2021, offering refiners a breather amid global volatility. Despite international supply fluctuations and geopolitical tensions, Indian fuel demand remains strong. With record-high import dependence and steady domestic consumption, refiners are likely to benefit from improved margins and better procurement terms.

Oil prices have dipped to a four-year low, benefiting oil-importing nations like India through lower import bills and reduced inflationary pressures. Despite global market volatility and geopolitical tensions, India's economy stands to gain. However, domestic fuel prices remain unchanged amid uncertainty, while experts forecast crude to stay below $75/barrel.

India’s oil and gas sector is facing mounting pressure from weak global crude prices, macroeconomic uncertainty, and volatile equity markets. While refined product demand shows resilience, upstream players like Oil India are struggling. Domestic lubricant and fuel prices remain steady, but investor sentiment and stock performance are turning increasingly cautious.