Energy & Petroleum

India’s bitumen prices stayed resilient in late October 2025 amid high freight costs, currency weakness, and supply-chain tightness. Post-festive construction demand is gradually recovering, though import dependency and global uncertainty persist. The market outlook remains firm-to-steady with mild upward potential through the remainder of the fiscal year.

India’s crude import dependence hit 88% in FY26 Q2 amid rising global supply risks. Brent crude stayed above $63/bbl, supported by freight hikes and reduced Russian discounts. Domestic bitumen prices remained elevated, reflecting cost pressures on refiners. Sanctions, shipping costs, and INR depreciation continue to shape short-term pricing volatility.

The global bitumen market showed mixed trends this week due to oversupply, weak demand in India and East Asia, and geopolitical uncertainties like Middle East tensions, Iran sanctions, and the U.S. government shutdown. While overall prices remained under pressure, regional fluctuations in Europe and China indicate localized dynamics influencing short-term movements. Future market direction will depend on crude oil trends, post-monsoon demand recovery in South Asia, and ongoing geopolitical developments.

Bitumen markets remain subdued across Asia and India, with prices stagnant amid weak demand and monsoon disruptions. East Asia and China face further pressure from weather and sluggish consumption, while Europe stabilizes. Iran stays fragile under sanctions and currency depreciation. Demand recovery in India is unlikely before post-monsoon construction activity.

Asian and Middle Eastern bitumen prices remain soft as oversupply and monsoon-driven demand weakness weigh on the market. Limited tenders from Indonesia and selective Indian buying offer brief support, but high inventories and wet weather across key regions keep prices rangebound despite upcoming refinery maintenance and modest post-monsoon project expectations.

Domestic oil products traded mixed, with FO at ₹47,540–48,607/MT and LDO at ₹58,300–60,890/KL. Demand is recovering post-monsoon, while Chennai Petroleum’s maintenance may tighten supply. Internationally, Brent rose to $68.47/bbl on supply concerns. Expanding global base oil output and new imports into India could restrain future price gains.

Crude oil prices remained stable at $66–68/bbl, supported by geopolitical supply risks. Bitumen prices stayed mostly steady across key regions, with India seeing only a marginal rise. Demand in India, China, and Europe stayed muted due to monsoon, rainfall, and holidays, though recovery is expected post-September as activity resumes.

The base oils market stayed mostly steady to soft, with Group I pressured by excess Iranian and Chinese supply. Group II remained capped by weak crude and feedstock values, while Group III stayed broadly stable, though 4 cSt and 8 cSt showed localized weakness. Buyers continued cautious, need-based procurement.

Bitumen prices remain steady in India with VG40 bulk at ₹36,300/MT (Karwar) and VG30 drums at ₹37,800/MT (Mundra). Internationally, Singapore-origin cargoes ($430.50/t FOB) are gaining traction as Middle East supplies tighten. South Africa faces rising import dependence with Natref’s production halt, prompting a shift toward Asia-Pacific sourcing despite higher costs.