Geopolitical Tensions Drive Oil & Bitumen Prices Amid Supply Uncertainties

Key Highlights

• Roadgrip VG40 and refinery VG30 prices increased across Indian ports, driven by domestic demand.
• Geopolitical conflicts and Red Sea instability are causing global supply chain disruptions.
• ONGC discovered new crude reserves in Uttar Pradesh, adding to domestic energy optimism.
• Global crude prices remain volatile; Brent forecast lowered to $74 by Barclays for 2025.

Bitumen & Emulsion Price Trends Across India

• Roadgrip VG40 is priced at ₹39,500/MT in Mundra (Drum), ₹39,200/MT in Kandla (Drum), ₹43,620/MT in Mathura (Bulk), ₹43,000/MT in Pithampur (Bulk).
• Refinery VG40 is highest at ₹52,310/MT in Mumbai (Bulk) and ₹50,882/MT in Haldia (Bulk), followed by ₹49,882/MT in Mathura (Bulk) and Panipat (Bulk).
• For VG30, Roadgrip prices range from ₹42,420/MT in Mathura (Bulk) to ₹36,440.68/MT in Karwar (Bulk). Refinery VG30 prices include ₹49,060/MT in Mumbai (Bulk), Haldia (Bulk), ₹47,262/MT in Mathura (Bulk).
• Bitumen Emulsion (SS 1) from Roadgrip is priced at ₹38,810/MT (Drum) and ₹33,880/MT (Bulk) in Mathura, while in Pithampur, it's ₹33,400/MT (Bulk) and ₹33,400/MT (Drum). 
• RS 1 prices range from ₹38,810/MT (Drum) and ₹33,810/MT (Bulk) in Mathura to ₹31,900/MT in Pithampur (Bulk) and Guntur (Bulk). Cold Mix prices are unspecified.

Petroleum Demand-Supply Dynamics

• The global oil and bitumen markets are experiencing heightened volatility due to escalating geopolitical tensions. The renewed conflict between Ukraine and Russia, coupled with Israel's airstrikes on Gaza and U.S. military action against the Houthis in Yemen, has intensified supply chain disruptions. The Red Sea remains a high-risk trade route, impacting crude shipments and tanker operations, thereby straining supply.
• China’s recent economic stimulus announcement has fueled demand optimism, reinforcing upward pressure on crude oil prices. 
• Meanwhile, India’s rising infrastructure activity has driven local bitumen demand, prompting domestic refineries to increase prices by $10. Further hikes are anticipated by April 1, reinforcing a bullish trend in the region.
• However, in Europe, bitumen prices declined slightly to $410-$440 due to sluggish demand. Similarly, Iranian bitumen prices have remained stable despite currency fluctuations, though post-New Year adjustments are expected.

Petroleum News: Global & Domestic Market Updates

• Crude oil prices declined by 0.2% to ₹5,919 following reports of a partial ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region.
• Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has discovered crude oil reserves near Sagarpali village in Ballia district, Uttar Pradesh, on land leased from a freedom fighter. This discovery raises hopes for farm owners in a 300 km radius.
• The United States is considering imposing tariffs on non-US buyers of Venezuelan crude, a move that could introduce fresh uncertainties, particularly for top buyer China.
• International crude oil prices have been rising steadily, with Brent crude crossing $73 per barrel and WTI crude trading at $69.37 per barrel.
• There are concerns over the potential impact of tariffs on Venezuelan oil imports, which could affect India’s crude oil procurement.
• US crude oil prices have been showing positive movement, trading above the 50-candle SMA and maintaining an upward correctional trend.
• Brent crude oil prices remained stable after recovering from an oversold condition, with indications of further movement toward the target level.
• A large illegal crude oil reservoir was discovered in Ondo State during a joint operation by the Nigerian Army and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC). The suspects involved in the operation fled the scene.
• Oil prices have been rising in Asian trading sessions for the sixth consecutive time, driven by a sharp drop in US crude inventories. However, gains have been limited due to the reported ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

Expert Opinion and Market Outlook

• Global crude oil prices are likely to stay firm, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and China’s economic outlook. U.S. attacks on the Houthis may prolong Red Sea disruptions, keeping freight costs elevated. 
• While India’s bitumen prices may continue rising, European markets may see further price corrections. Brent crude’s outlook for 2025 remains under pressure, with Barclays lowering its price forecast to $74 per barrel, reflecting concerns over U.S. economic slowdown risks.