India’s Crude Import Cost Hits 4-Year Low Amid Rising Demand and Global Price Slump

Key Takeaways

• Crude Price Falls Sharply: India’s average crude import cost dropped 17.87% month-on-month to $69.39/bbl, driven by global market shifts.
• Demand Remains Resilient: India is now the world’s top driver of oil demand growth, overtaking China amid steady economic and transport expansion.
• Import Dependence Hits Record: India’s crude import reliance reached 88.2% from April 2024 to February 2025, highlighting supply vulnerability.
• Refiners Gain Margin Advantage: With cheaper feedstock and policy stability post-elections, refiners are poised for improved throughput and margins.
• Global Risks Linger: New U.S. sanctions, OPEC+ deviations, and geopolitical tensions may add price pressure in the coming weeks.

Petroleum Price: Sharp Fall Leads to New Low

• Refinery Bitumen (VG30) is available in Panipat at ₹48,612 per metric ton. Roadgrip Bitumen Emulsion (RS 1) is priced at ₹33,500 per metric ton in Mathura. In Delhi, Base Oil (SN150) is being offered at ₹68 per kilogram. 
• Fuel Oil (Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil) is available in Mundra at ₹48.5 per kilogram. LubriEdge Rubber Process Oil (Paraffinic 245) is priced at ₹72 per litre in Delhi. 
• In Bhiwadi, LubriEdge Hydraulic Oil (Hydraulic Oil 68) is available at ₹87 per litre, while LubriEdge Gear Oil (Gear Oil 150) is at ₹115 per litre.
• LubriEdge Rust Preventive Oil (Water Displacing Type - WDM) is at ₹122 per litre, and LubriEdge Metal Working Fluid (Soluble Cutting Oil) is priced at ₹112 per litre.

Petroleum Demand and Supply: India’s Oil Demand Overtakes China 

• As per OILPRICE.COM, India’s crude oil import landscape has witnessed a significant shift this April, as the average import price of crude dropped below the $70-per-barrel mark for the first time since August 2021. 
• The sharp 17.87% month-on-month drop in the average import cost to $69.39/bbl is largely attributed to a plunge in global oil benchmarks amid rising geopolitical uncertainties, evolving U.S. trade and tariff policies, and tempered global demand expectations.
• On the demand side, India continues to exhibit strong and growing consumption patterns, driven by economic activity, expanding transportation networks, and industrial energy needs. The country retained its position as the world’s largest oil demand growth driver, overtaking China due to surging fuel consumption and a relatively slower shift toward alternative fuels like EVs and LNG in comparison to China.
• Despite volatile global oil prices, Indian fuel demand remains resilient. The country’s crude oil import dependence touched a record 88.2% in the period from April 2024 to February 2025. This indicates India’s increasing reliance on overseas crude to meet its refining and fuel demands, especially as domestic crude production remains stagnant.
• On the supply side, refiners are now in a more favorable position to procure higher volumes of crude, benefiting from the lower international prices. Lower feedstock costs could also translate to improved refinery margins and elevated throughput levels in the near term. Additionally, with elections concluded in 2024 and retail fuel prices remaining largely unchanged since March that year, refiners may experience some policy-driven stability in pricing and distribution, at least in the short term.
• The global oversupply concerns — compounded by sluggish economic signals from Western economies and trade friction led by U.S. tariffs — are expected to keep international crude benchmarks under pressure. This will likely maintain a favorable crude procurement scenario for Indian buyers.

Petroleum News: Global Trade Risks Remain

• Brent crude oil prices are testing resistance levels, while the recent upward momentum in silver prices has slowed down. Aluminium prices, meanwhile, are holding steady above support for the second consecutive week.
• Crude oil prices are on track for a weekly gain, supported by new U.S. sanctions targeting companies involved in trading oil with Iran and a slowdown in the growth of global oil supply.
• Oil prices climbed on Thursday, trading near two-week highs, amid fresh U.S. sanctions aimed at reducing Iranian oil exports, which have raised concerns over tighter global supply.
• Crude oil inventories in the United States rose in the latest week, with stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reaching 442.9 million barrels as of April 11, according to the EIA's weekly petroleum status report.
• Middle Eastern crude benchmarks ended the week on a strong note, with prices reaching two-week highs. However, margins on refined products generally eased, indicating a mixed picture in downstream markets.
• Crude oil prices in India rose on Thursday, driven by stronger demand in the spot market. This increase followed gains in global benchmarks, including WTI and Brent.
• Kazakhstan exceeded its March OPEC+ crude production quota by 400,000 barrels per day, reaching a total output of 1.83 million barrels per day, according to newly released official data.
• Australian energy company Santos reported a 7% decline in Q1 sales revenue, citing reduced crude sales volumes and falling LNG prices as the main challenges.
• Prices for Azerbaijan’s Azeri Light crude oil have risen in the global market, continuing an upward trend fueled by market optimism and tightening supply conditions.

Expert Opinion: Strong Demand Expected to Continue

Looking ahead, the market anticipates continued strong demand from Indian refiners, supported by low crude prices and seasonal consumption patterns. However, volatility in global trade and potential geopolitical escalations could add upward pressure to prices in the coming months. Still, if the current trend continues, consumers may see relief in retail fuel prices, while refiners stand to benefit from improved margins and throughput.