India’s Petroleum Exports Dip on Refinery Woes, Global Headwinds

Key Highlights

• Bitumen, fuel oil, and lubricant prices hold steady across key Indian markets.
• Petroleum exports dropped 35% YoY in April 2025 due to reduced HSD and ATF shipments.
• Domestic consumption remained flat at 20.1 million tonnes.
• Refinery expansions at Panipat, Koyali, and Barauni expected to boost output by late 2025.

Current Oil and Gas Prices in Key Indian Markets

• Refinery Bitumen (VG30) is currently priced at ₹48,052 per metric ton in Panipat.
• Roadgrip Bitumen (VG40) is available at ₹36,500 per metric ton in Karwar. 
• In Mathura, Roadgrip Bitumen Emulsion (RS1) is being offered at ₹33,700 per metric ton. 
• Base Oil (SN150) is trading at ₹67 per kilogram in Delhi. 
• Meanwhile, Fuel Oil (Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil) is priced at ₹47.5 per kilogram in Mundra. 
• Among lubricants, LubriEdge Hydraulic Oil (Grade 68) is selling for ₹87 per litre, and LubriEdge Gear Oil (Grade 150) is priced at ₹115 per litre, both in Bhiwadi.

Export and Import Trends: Sharp Declines in April 2025

• As per the financialexpress.com, India’s petroleum product exports saw a sharp 35% drop in value, declining from $3.7 billion in April 2024 to $2.4 billion in April 2025, driven primarily by reduced shipments of High-Speed Diesel (HSD) and Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF).
• Meanwhile, refined petroleum imports fell by 14% in value, from $2.1 billion to $1.8 billion, indicating a price correction in the international market for refined oil products.
• India’s petroleum exports volume fell by 12.5% YoY, down from 4.8 million tonnes to 4.2 million tonnes, primarily due to lower HSD and ATF exports. According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), imports also decreased by 9% YoY to 3.9 million tonnes in April:
  1. LPG and lubricants, imported to bridge production shortfalls, constituted 45.9% of total petroleum product imports, up from 43.0% in April 2024.
  2. Petcoke made up 29.3% of total imports, with the entire volume sourced by private players.
• Domestically, consumption remained flat at 20.1 million tonnes, signaling no immediate spike in demand.
• Kpler reported a 22% drop in petroleum product exports MoM in April (from 1.44 million bpd in March to 1.12 million bpd), and 7% down YoY (from 1.20 million bpd in April 2024).

Key Market Developments

1. The fall in exports is attributed to temporary factors like planned refinery maintenance at Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corp, and Mangalore Refinery.
2. Top export destinations such as UAE, Singapore, and the Netherlands saw reduced shipments in April.
3. Despite a 26% tariff imposition by the US, petroleum products were exempt, cushioning the impact on energy exports.
4. Geopolitical tensions and logistical disruptions—Red Sea route threats and Panama Canal delays—continue to strain global supply chains.
5. According to Kpler, crude processing could dip by 250,000 bpd in Q2 2025, though capacity expansions at Koyali, Barauni, and Panipat are projected to ease constraints by late 2025 or early 2026.

Market Expectations: Refinery Expansions to Stabilize Supply

While short-term export volumes may face downward pressure due to maintenance-related slowdowns, overall petroleum product exports are expected to remain strong in the coming months, backed by stable demand, exempted tariffs, and upcoming refinery expansions.