India's PVC Market Set for Structural Shift Amid Rising Domestic Output, Policy Interventions

Key Takeaways

• PVC Price Range: Mundra K67 PVC priced between ₹64,500–₹68,750/MT; Chinese grades most competitive.
• Import Pressure: FY 2024–25 average global price dropped 25% YoY to $785/MT due to Chinese oversupply.
• Surging Demand: India’s PVC demand grew 10% YoY to 4.75 MMT, expected to reach 5.5 MMT by FY 2026–27.
• Domestic Production Gap: Output remains flat at 1.5–2.0 MMT, with 2.5 MMT new capacity expected by FY 2026–27.
• Trade Defence Measures: BIS certification for all PVC imports effective June 24, 2025; anti-dumping duties up to $707/ton imposed.
• Outlook: Prices may stay weak short-term but could rise with BIS enforcement and ADD rollout. Domestic supply will meet 74% of future demand, improving resilience.

PVC Market Price: Import Pressure Weighs

• PVC K67 prices for ready material in Mundra are currently ranging between ₹64,500/MT and ₹68,750/MT. The most competitively priced option is XINFA’s SG5 grade at ₹64,500/MT. 
• ASNYL (FJ65R) and HYGAIN (HS1000R) are both quoted at ₹66,750/MT, while DAGU K (DG1000K) is slightly higher at ₹67,750/MT. LG’s compounded grade (LS100H) is available at ₹68,750/MT.
• In the international market, FY 2022-23 average price stood at USD1025/MT. In FY 2024-25, prices dropped by 25%, settling at USD785/MT, amid excess global supply and Chinese dumping.

PVC Demand-Supply Dynamics: Increasing Demand, Stagnant Supply

• India’s total PVC demand grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% between FY 2020 and FY 2025, reaching 4.75 million metric tons (MMT) in FY 2024–25, with an 10% year-on-year increase. 
• Demand is projected to continue rising at an annual rate of 7.5%, reaching 5.5 MMT by FY 2026–27. However, domestic production has remained relatively stagnant, ranging between 1.5 to 2.0 MMT up to FY 2023–24, leading to a widening supply gap that has been met through imports. 
• To address this, a significant capacity expansion of 2.5 MMT is expected to become operational by FY 2026–27, which will raise domestic output to 4.0 MMT. 
• As a result, import dependence is projected to decline substantially—from approximately 60% (3.0 MMT) in FY 2024–25 to around 25% (1.5 MMT) by FY 2026–27.

PVC Key Market News: Chinese Imports Soar

• Chinese dumping in the Indian PVC market has surged significantly, with China’s share in Indian imports rising sharply from just 3% in FY 2019–20 to approximately 40% by FY 2024–25. 
• In response to growing concerns over quality and unfair trade practices, the Indian government has introduced stringent quality control measures, including the mandatory BIS certification for all PVC imports, effective from June 24, 2025. 
• Additionally, anti-dumping duties (ADD) have been introduced to curb the influx of underpriced imports. For suspension-grade PVC, a preliminary ADD of up to US$ 339 per tonne has been recommended on imports from seven countries, including China and the United States.
• Meanwhile, a final ADD of up to US$ 707 per tonne was imposed in March 2025 on paste-grade PVC imports from China, South Korea, Malaysia, Norway, Taiwan, and Thailand.

Market Expectation: Prices May Stay Weak Short-Term

• PVC prices in India may remain under pressure due to weak global demand and continued dumping. However, with the enforcement of BIS certification and likely implementation of anti-dumping duties, domestic prices are expected to recover, enhancing profitability. 
• India’s import dependence is projected to fall below 30%, with domestic capacity meeting approximately 74% of total demand, thereby reducing vulnerability to global price fluctuations. Continued growth in infrastructure, real estate, and irrigation sectors will further support robust PVC demand.