Indian TMT Market Holds Steady Amid Muted Demand; Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive

Key Highlights

1. TMT prices stable — ₹46,500–47,000/ton (Mumbai), ₹47,000–47,500/ton (NCR), ₹44,000–44,500/ton (Vizag).
2. Demand muted amid monsoon slowdown; sellers maintaining steady pricing.
3. India became a net importer of finished steel in September 2025; consumption up 9% YoY.
4. World Steel Association projects India’s steel demand to grow 9% annually till FY26.
5. Rashmi Group investment of ₹10,000 crore to boost integrated steel capacity in West Bengal.
6. Market outlook remains steady with optimism for recovery post-monsoon.

TMT Prices Hold Steady Across Major Regions Amid Weak Demand

• Ex-Mumbai: ₹46,500 – ₹47,000 / ton
• Ex-Delhi NCR: ₹47,000 – ₹47,500 / ton
• Ex-Vizag: ₹44,000 – ₹44,500 / ton

Note: Distributors across the North, West, and South regions have largely maintained steady pricing. The above rates reflect this stability and consistent trading activity.

Demand & Supply: Seasonal Slowdown Keeps Trading Muted but Supply Stable

• Market activity remains subdued, with prices holding steady amid seasonal sluggishness during the monsoon period. Weak demand has prompted sellers to maintain stable prices rather than risk oversupply. 
• Distributors are keeping inventory levels balanced—sufficient to meet current requirements while minimizing supply chain disruptions. Overall, the market remains cautious but well-supplied.

Market News: Steel Imports Rise; Demand Forecast Brightens for FY2025–26

• India Becomes Net Importer of Finished Steel - According to government data, India imported about 0.65 million MT of finished steel in September 2025, while exports totaled 0.58 million MT, making the country a net importer for the month. 
• Imports fell 36.3% YoY, yet remained higher than exports. Finished steel production rose 14.7% YoY to 13.3 million MT, while consumption grew 9% YoY to 13.5 million MT, but slipped 2.2% MoM.
  
  Implication for TMT:
  Yearly consumption growth signals improving construction demand, but the month-on-month dip highlights short-term weakness. Domestic rebar producers may face mild pricing pressure from imported steel and elevated input costs.
   
• India’s Steel Demand Forecasted to Grow 9% in FY2025–26 - The World Steel Association projects India’s steel demand to grow around 9% annually through 2026, supported by robust infrastructure spending and a rebound in construction and manufacturing sectors.
  
  Implication for TMT:
  This sustained growth outlook reinforces optimism for TMT and rebar producers, indicating long-term market resilience despite near-term headwinds.
   
• Rashmi Group Announces ₹10,000 Crore Investment in West Bengal - The Rashmi Group has announced plans for a ₹10,000 crore integrated steel plant (2.8 MTPA) and a 400 MW captive power plant in West Bengal. 
• Spread across 938 acres, the project has received “ultra-mega” status and is expected to create over 18,000 jobs by 2030.
  
  Implication for TMT:
  This large-scale investment strengthens India’s domestic steel ecosystem and is expected to support future TMT bar production and downstream growth opportunities.

Expert Opinion: Market Stable but Discounting Persists Amid Soft Demand

• The TMT market continues to reflect subdued demand conditions, leading some producers to offer selective and aggressive discounts. However, with major mills maintaining stable base prices, there is limited room for further reductions unless demand weakens further. 
• Distributor inventories remain comfortable, ensuring smooth supply and logistics. Manufacturers are aligning production with slower offtake to prevent overstocking. Overall, market sentiment remains cautious yet stable, with a potential turnaround anticipated once post-monsoon construction activity resumes.