Rebar Market Steady Despite Soft Demand; Export Momentum and Policy Support Offer Upside

Key Highlights 

• Prices stable across Mumbai, Delhi NCR, and Vizag with no major fluctuations.
• Demand remains soft, prompting cautious inventory management by distributors and mills.
• Policy and trade developments—including duty reviews and rising exports—may impact future pricing.
• Industry outlook positive with expected 7–8% steel consumption growth in FY 2025–26.

Rebar/TMT Prices Hold Steady Across Key Indian Markets

• Ex-Mumbai: ₹46,500 – ₹47,000/ton
• Ex-Delhi NCR: ₹47,000 – ₹47,500/ton
• Ex-Vizag: ₹44,000 – ₹44,500/ton

Distributors across the North, West, and South regions continue to maintain steady pricing. These rates reflect measured stability and consistent trading activity, without any aggressive price fluctuations.

Muted Demand Keeps Market Cautious; Inventories Well Managed

• Market sentiment remains cautious. Demand continues to be soft — partly due to the seasonal slowdown following the monsoon — prompting sellers to maintain current price levels rather than reduce them sharply.
• Distributors are managing inventories prudently: stocks are sufficient to meet ongoing requirements but not excessive, helping avoid any major supply glut.
• On the production side, mills appear to be calibrating output in line with the muted demand, which is preventing a significant build-up of unsold inventory.

News: New Capacities, Policy Reviews, and Trade Shifts Shape TMT Market

• Jai Raj Ispat Ltd (Andhra Pradesh) has completed the Performance-Guarantee (PG) test for its new 350,000-tpy rebar (TMT) mill at the Orvakal Mega Industrial Hub.
• Captain Steel India Ltd, a TMT-bar manufacturer, is promoting its latest generation of “future-ready” TMT bars, highlighting enhanced quality, durability, and compliance to meet growing infrastructure needs.
• Import-tariff review: The government is reportedly considering the reinstatement of safeguard/import duties on certain steel products (including rebar/rolled products) to protect domestic manufacturers from low-priced imports, particularly from China. This could influence TMT pricing and demand in the coming months.
• Trade balance shift: Provisional government data indicates that India’s finished-steel imports for April–October dropped by ~34% YoY, while exports rose significantly. 
• Quality-compliance norms extended: The government has extended the exemption from specific mandatory quality-compliance regulations for imported steel and stainless-steel products until March 2026. 
• Environmental & regulatory oversight: There is renewed scrutiny of emissions from steel plants. The government has begun reviewing emissions-reduction targets for steelmakers, which may impact production costs, compliance burdens, and supply-side economics for TMT/rebar manufacturers.
• Positive consumption outlook: Independent reports (including credit-rating agencies) suggest that steel consumption in India is expected to grow 7–8% in FY 2025–26, supported by construction, infrastructure expansion, and urbanisation — all strong tailwinds for rebar/TMT demand.

Expert Opinion: TMT Market Stable for Now, with Recovery Linked to Infra Push

From our perspective, the market is moving cautiously. With near-term demand remaining subdued, distributors are wisely keeping inventories tight instead of overstocking. Since major mills are not offering steep discounts, the scope for significant price corrections remains limited for now.

However, structural positives — such as steady export momentum and supportive policy measures (including PLI-driven investments) — could set the stage for a recovery once construction and infrastructure activity pick up meaningfully.