Oil Prices Rise on Tariff Cuts and Reduced Tensions, but Inventory Concerns Remain

Key Highlights

• WTI crude trades above $63/bbl, down nearly 12% YTD, as OPEC+ accelerates production and demand softens amid trade disputes.
• Goldman Sachs notes Trump’s social media bias favoring $40–$50/bbl, influencing market psychology and adding volatility.
• U.S.–China tariff détente offers temporary relief, but rising U.S. stockpiles cap price gains.
• India–Pakistan ceasefire and trade friction developments to test market resilience at $60/bbl support level.

Petroleum Price: Crude Oil Prices Edge Higher

• As of the latest session, WTI crude oil is trading just above $63 per barrel, having fallen nearly 12% year-to-date. The recent price weakness stems from market concerns surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and faster-than-expected supply increases from OPEC+. 
• Brent prices have followed a similar trajectory. Interestingly, analysis by Goldman Sachs reveals that former U.S. President Donald Trump has shown a preference for oil prices between $40–$50/bbl, inferred from nearly 900 social media posts. His commentary often influences short-term oil price movements, particularly around geopolitical and policy decisions related to energy.
• Bitumen VG40 (Roadgrip) is priced at ₹41,400/MT in Mundra (drum packaging) and ₹36,000.68/MT in Karwar (bulk), while Refinery VG40 is significantly higher at ₹50,912/MT in Panipat (bulk). 
• Bitumen Emulsion SS 1 (Roadgrip) is listed at ₹34,800/MT in Mathura for bulk and ₹39,800/MT for drum packaging.
• Base Oil N150 is priced at ₹63.5/LTR in Mundra, and 4cST at ₹76/LTR in Mumbai. Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil is available at ₹47.5/KG in Mumbai and ₹48.5/KG in Mundra.
• For lubricants, Gear Oil 460 (LubriEdge) is ₹134/LTR and Gear Oil 220 is ₹124/LTR, both in Bhiwadi. Hydraulic Oil HLP46 (LubriEdge) is priced at ₹99/LTR and Hydraulic Oil 68 at ₹91/LTR, also in Bhiwadi.

Geopolitical Stability in South Asia Offers Short-Term Support to Oil Markets

• Global supply has been under pressure due to OPEC+ easing production curbs at a pace faster than anticipated. This move has added extra barrels to an already saturated market. 
• On the demand side, uncertainty driven by trade tensions—particularly those initiated under the Trump administration—has led to dampened global energy consumption, especially in manufacturing-heavy economies.
• In the U.S., domestic oil production continues to remain resilient, reflecting the administration’s past policy push for energy independence and dominance. 
• However, production growth is increasingly challenged by low price levels, especially when WTI dips below $30, where Trump has historically advocated for higher prices to sustain domestic producers. The U.S.–China trade détente, involving a 90-day rollback on select tariffs, has offered some relief, aiding in a modest recovery from earlier lows.

Petroleum News: U.S.–China Tariff Easing Provides Temporary Relief

• Crude oil prices dipped slightly to $66.24 per barrel on Wednesday, though they remain near two-week highs, supported by optimism over easing U.S.–China tariff tensions and positive U.S. inflation data. 
• On Tuesday, prices had risen nearly 2%, buoyed by the temporary tariff rollback between the two major economies.
• Despite recent gains, oil prices came under pressure as industry data signaled a potential rise in U.S. crude inventories. Traders are now awaiting official inventory figures for confirmation. The prospect of growing stockpiles has injected caution into the market, limiting further upside in the near term.
• WTI crude oil continues its rebound from April lows of $56.43, recently testing a key resistance level at $63.31. If broken, this could signal a stronger recovery; however, fundamental headwinds persist.
• Geopolitical stability in South Asia also provided some support to oil markets. Over the weekend, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire, averting further escalation. Amid rising border tensions, India’s oil marketing companies have assured the public of ample fuel reserves, discouraging panic buying and emphasizing national energy security.
• Meanwhile, trade friction remains. India has proposed retaliatory import duties on select U.S. products in response to Washington’s tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium, as shown in a recent WTO notification. This could potentially impact bilateral trade, including energy-related imports.

Markets will closely watch several key factors this week:

• India–Pakistan border dynamics
• Progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations 
• Inventory trends in the U.S. 
• OPEC’s upcoming policy signals

These developments will collectively test the crude market’s ability to hold above the $60 per barrel psychological level.

Expert Opinion: Market to Stay Range-Bound as Traders Monitor OPEC+ Signals

• The market is likely to remain range-bound in the near term as traders watch for updates on trade negotiations, U.S. inventory levels, and OPEC+ output strategies. 
• Given Trump’s past influence and preference range, traders may also anticipate verbal interventions if prices stray significantly above or below the $40–$50/bbl band.