Primary TMT Prices Stable Amid Balanced Demand and Supply
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Primary TMT prices remained stable across major regions. Demand and supply stayed balanced in November, but distributors anticipate potential price declines in December due to subdued market inquiries. New pricing from primary mills is expected in early December, clarifying the market trajectory.
Key Takeaways
- Current Prices: Ex-Mumbai and Ex-Delhi NCR prices hold steady at Rs. 54,500-55,000/mt, while Ex-Vizag prices range between Rs. 52,500-53,500/mt.
- Demand-Supply Equilibrium: Distributors have ample inventory, balancing demand and supply, with bargaining likely amid subdued market sentiment.
- Sector Performance: Steel consumption rose 12% YoY in Q2FY25, but production lagged due to maintenance and import pressure; smaller players outperformed major steel producers.
- Inventory Trends: Inventory drawdowns are evident, with cement growth slowing to 3% YoY while steel consumption showed resilience, up 9% in October.
- Outlook: Market trends and inquiries in December will determine the direction of prices, with potential for further declines in the near term.
Primary TMT Prices
- Prices are as follows (size 12 to 32mm): Ex-Mumbai: Rs. 54,500-55,000/mt Ex-Delhi NCR: Rs. 54,500-55,000/mt Ex-Vizag: Rs. 52,500 - 53,500/mt
- Note - Distributors across North, West and South have increased prices. Above pricing is based on the same.
Primary TMT Demand & Supply
- Demand was unchanged in November, and it is anticipated that prices would decline in December as well.The distributors are prepared to bargain over prices, and the market's outlook will be determined by the volume of inquiries. Since the distributors have a large amount of goods on hand, demand and supply appear to be balanced. In the first week of December, the plant will release the new rates. After the first week of December, a clear picture of demand will be available.
Primary TMT News
- Cement and steel production lag behind consumption, indicating inventory drawdowns. Cement growth slowed to 3% in Q2FY25 (vs. 10.3% last year), while steel consumption rose 12% (vs. 17.7%).
- Steel mills faced production cuts due to maintenance and import pressure, impacting flat products. Major steel producers saw 1.3% YoY growth in April-October, while smaller players grew 8.9%. October's core industries index rose 3.1%, with steel consumption up 9% and cement production rising 7.1%.
Expert Opinion
- In the first week of December, the primary and secondary mills will open for business. According to market conversations, the prices will drop even more than they did in November. The pattern of demand and the flow of inquiries will indicate if the market is showing an uptrend or a downturn in prices.
Daily Market Report
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