TMT Market Shows Declining Demand, but December Surge Expected Amid Price Adjustments

Key Takeaways

• Distributors Increase Prices: Prices for primary TMT steel range from Rs. 52,500 to Rs. 55,000/mt, with distributors across North, West, and South pushing prices up.
• Demand Downward for Now: November shows a declining demand pattern, mainly due to the NGT ban in Delhi-NCR, though demand is expected to rise in December.
• Steel Consumption Surge: India’s steel consumption increased 13.5% in H1 2024-25, with a goal to boost production capacity to 300 million mt by 2030.
• Balanced Market with December Optimism: While demand remains slow, distributors expect a market uptick by the second week of December.

Primary TMT Prices

• Prices are as follows (size 12 to 32mm): Ex-Mumbai: Rs. 54,500-55,000/mt Ex-Delhi NCR: Rs. 54,500-55,000/mt Ex-Vizag: Rs. 52,500 - 53,500/mt
• Note - Distributors across North, West and South have increased prices. Above pricing is based on the same.

Primary TMT Demand & Supply

• At the end of November, the demand trend indicates a downward trajectory. The demand in Delhi-NCR has been affected by the NGT's construction ban. Further developments in the Delhi NCR region will be determined by the Supreme Court's ruling. The distributors anticipate a spike in demand in December, although the market is generally dull. In the second week of December, a clear picture will emerge.

Primary TMT News

• India’s steel consumption surged by 13.5% in the first half of 2024-25, despite a global economic slowdown. The country’s steel production capacity is currently 180 million metric tons (mts), with a target to reach 300 million mts by 2030. To meet this demand, India needs an additional 120 million mts of capacity, requiring an investment of around $120 billion.
• Steel imports have risen 41.3% in the first half of 2024-25, which could affect domestic producers by driving prices down.

Expert Opinion

• In the month of November, the demand pattern indicated a declining tendency. Primary and secondary mills have made two to three price revisions. Given that the distributors have a sufficient quantity of the substance, demand and supply appear to be balanced. The distributors are expecting the industry to exhibit upward trends in December.