Base Oil (N70) in Mumbai

India’s base oil market remains soft, with region-wise price disparities and a weak outlook. Declines in crude production, refinery throughput, and petroleum exports are pressuring margins. While bulk and barrel-packaged oil prices remain stable, market sentiment is bearish due to muted demand, subdued exports, and volatile global oil trends.

Brent Crude averaged $67.79/bbl in April 2025, down from $72.60/bbl in March. India’s crude imports fell 1% YoY, with Russia maintaining its lead and the U.S. surpassing the UAE. Domestic production declined, while petroleum product output dropped 4.2%. LNG imports surged 21.3%, highlighting a growing shift to cleaner fuels.

Crude oil prices rose sharply amid U.S.–China trade relief, yet Asian base oil markets remain mixed. Group II and III face oversupply, especially with South Korean restarts, keeping prices under pressure. Bright Stock stays firm due to structural shortages. Market sentiment remains cautious amid persistent weak downstream demand and limited industrial recovery.

WTI crude oil hovers above $63/bbl, weighed by OPEC+ supply increases and U.S. trade tensions. Goldman Sachs highlights Trump’s historical preference for lower oil prices, adding uncertainty. While easing U.S.–China tariffs provided brief support, rising U.S. inventories and fragile geopolitical balances limit further upside. Market remains cautious and range-bound.

India has significantly ramped up U.S. crude oil imports, leveraging favorable WTI pricing and using energy trade as a strategic tool amid ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. State refiners are leading the charge, while analysts expect continued import growth, potentially impacting regional freight, WTI pricing, and global energy trade dynamics.

Petroleum product prices in India show wide regional and packaging variations, with VG40, base oils, and lubricants trading at distinct levels. OPEC+ output hike and subdued demand are shaping global supply dynamics. Despite regional geopolitical tensions, oil prices remain stable due to unaffected supply chains and sufficient global inventories.

Oil and bitumen prices witnessed a sharp decline, driven by economic factors like increased inventories and reduced Chinese demand. Brent crude fell to a 2021 low, impacting global and Indian bitumen prices. Despite geopolitical tensions, market behavior remained largely economic. Iran’s port disaster adds further instability to regional pricing.

Crude oil prices dipped as Brent fell to $63.61 and WTI to $59.72, amid weaker Asian refinery demand and rising trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee marginally appreciated. India’s crude sourcing shifts toward the US, with record June purchases planned, positioning oil imports as leverage ahead of May’s India - US trade talks.

Crude oil prices rose modestly, with WTI at $64.19/bbl and Brent at $67.89/bbl. Domestic demand in India stays resilient, aided by easing inflation and fiscal headroom. Bitumen, base oil, and lubricants remain stable across regions. Export headwinds persist amid global tariff tensions, but GDP growth is projected at 6.5% for FY26.